* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 27 27 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 27 27 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 18 19 19 21 19 21 18 23 19 27 30 33 28 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 1 -1 2 -1 4 0 2 4 3 4 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 146 160 158 158 164 168 162 182 208 201 213 225 221 211 193 194 186 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.7 25.9 24.5 22.9 23.2 22.4 22.3 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.2 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 153 142 124 109 92 95 85 83 74 73 73 72 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 72 71 67 59 55 48 46 42 44 41 40 36 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 68 53 57 66 47 35 34 5 8 21 38 38 43 19 9 8 200 MB DIV 79 84 56 49 74 40 8 4 19 -5 -6 -8 -17 -1 5 5 8 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 1 -1 -1 -8 0 -15 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 378 361 343 349 353 476 455 572 663 836 888 952 1000 1045 1058 1061 1028 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.4 22.3 22.8 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.7 105.4 106.2 107.2 109.6 112.1 114.8 117.2 119.6 121.4 122.7 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 11 11 8 6 4 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 25 21 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 21. 17. 14. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -10. -14. -20. -25. -32. -38. -45. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 104.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.52 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.0% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##