* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 21 24 29 33 39 44 48 50 53 55 58 61 65 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 21 24 29 33 39 44 48 38 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 25 26 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 6 4 2 12 14 13 7 7 7 8 9 8 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -6 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 139 138 148 124 89 359 13 53 60 75 17 37 11 45 68 87 91 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.6 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 164 159 154 154 154 158 158 155 147 145 144 144 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 77 79 81 82 85 88 87 86 86 89 87 86 84 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 50 51 48 52 68 82 88 95 100 119 119 114 110 87 80 200 MB DIV 51 39 53 84 89 39 27 65 68 71 93 81 61 54 71 76 79 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 212 183 152 100 48 9 18 10 33 48 26 -22 -53 -63 -59 -79 -132 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 95.5 94.9 94.4 93.9 93.3 93.2 93.2 93.4 93.9 94.5 95.1 95.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 2 0 1 1 3 4 3 1 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 26 29 26 23 27 24 28 26 22 13 12 11 11 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. 33. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 96.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 10.1% 8.0% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 9.3% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 9.8% 8.4% 5.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##