* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 52 58 61 62 63 62 60 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 52 58 61 62 63 62 60 59 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 16 15 8 6 2 5 5 8 13 15 18 16 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 2 1 1 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 4 7 8 SHEAR DIR 23 57 51 49 44 49 53 9 344 306 290 279 286 272 286 281 271 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.1 26.4 26.2 26.3 25.7 25.0 25.0 25.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 153 148 144 136 131 124 126 124 126 119 111 111 113 107 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 67 68 61 60 57 51 49 49 47 43 42 41 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 18 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 23 47 49 40 55 55 46 41 35 53 49 49 56 55 64 84 76 200 MB DIV 65 63 39 34 49 27 8 18 0 12 0 0 9 -6 -13 -20 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -12 -14 -14 -7 0 2 7 4 9 10 10 9 6 4 7 LAND (KM) 568 643 725 744 714 722 806 892 1023 1130 1221 1322 1467 1569 1656 1774 1971 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 17 14 8 5 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 27. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. 35. 34. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 108.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##