* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 47 60 68 76 76 78 78 81 80 81 81 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 47 60 68 76 76 78 78 81 80 81 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 48 52 53 54 54 56 57 58 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 13 10 9 13 12 9 7 6 5 7 9 10 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 1 -4 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 56 54 52 48 38 42 26 47 68 50 30 331 313 320 2 360 14 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.8 29.4 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.5 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 152 152 163 159 149 144 139 129 128 129 127 127 132 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 73 73 70 70 65 63 60 54 50 47 43 39 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 12 14 14 20 20 22 22 24 24 27 28 30 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 15 22 24 22 37 49 54 45 32 24 29 48 54 69 65 69 50 200 MB DIV 57 77 74 67 71 61 57 56 24 7 -7 -4 12 5 23 15 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 2 1 6 3 6 7 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 406 456 502 537 556 608 669 610 658 717 880 1082 1298 1488 1649 1757 1803 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.9 17.0 18.3 19.5 20.2 20.5 20.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.9 106.6 107.2 107.9 109.4 111.3 113.2 115.2 117.2 119.5 121.8 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 8 9 11 11 11 10 11 12 11 8 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 17 16 14 17 19 13 9 7 1 1 1 1 2 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 12. 15. 21. 20. 23. 22. 23. 22. 23. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 35. 43. 51. 51. 53. 53. 56. 55. 56. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 105.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.53 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 15.6% 5.1% 2.8% 0.7% 11.0% 19.6% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 0.6% 13.0% 8.2% 0.9% 0.2% 10.0% 13.6% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##