* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 38 44 49 49 45 40 35 30 27 22 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 38 44 49 49 45 40 35 30 27 22 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 8 8 10 13 17 13 11 6 8 7 10 11 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 0 -3 0 1 4 2 0 1 0 2 3 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 314 317 288 267 250 242 219 215 198 219 217 177 203 208 225 224 212 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9 25.5 24.8 23.8 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 154 150 144 120 113 102 97 91 88 90 92 95 95 95 98 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 70 68 64 58 57 51 50 47 45 42 41 37 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 17 17 18 18 17 16 14 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 29 44 52 28 23 33 33 47 53 42 46 54 60 66 63 200 MB DIV 44 59 50 50 50 61 60 20 7 1 -1 9 -9 -2 -17 -6 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -3 -4 -6 1 -7 1 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 429 475 501 451 422 474 589 776 949 1125 1287 1435 1574 1709 1817 1893 1982 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 21.1 22.3 22.9 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.3 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.2 112.2 114.6 117.4 120.5 122.9 124.8 126.5 127.9 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 14 15 13 10 8 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 13 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 22. 22. 19. 17. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 19. 24. 24. 20. 15. 11. 5. 2. -3. -7. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 108.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 10.0% 7.7% 0.5% 0.2% 7.3% 5.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##