* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 53 59 61 61 57 54 48 45 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 53 59 61 61 57 54 48 45 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 33 35 38 39 38 36 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 7 10 12 10 11 14 12 12 13 15 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 2 0 1 2 8 9 9 SHEAR DIR 51 42 37 24 27 67 18 57 86 73 61 43 24 45 71 89 96 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 141 140 142 146 147 144 143 147 146 140 132 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 63 61 60 60 55 48 45 46 49 54 54 53 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 10 11 13 12 13 13 13 11 9 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 4 1 2 11 14 22 39 63 72 63 48 23 -4 -10 -26 200 MB DIV 14 34 65 58 64 77 47 -5 -35 -55 -24 -23 -26 0 -29 -18 -30 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -7 -3 -4 0 2 LAND (KM) 1648 1686 1733 1791 1843 1916 1991 2082 2170 2223 2204 2101 1940 1737 1569 1463 1480 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.7 9.9 9.0 8.3 8.1 8.8 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.1 120.9 121.6 122.3 123.3 123.9 124.2 124.3 124.2 123.7 123.1 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 5 4 3 3 6 9 9 7 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 15 15 16 18 22 27 27 23 24 22 8 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 28. 34. 36. 36. 32. 29. 23. 20. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 119.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.8% 3.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.8% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##