* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/07/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 29 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 29 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 17 22 23 23 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 90 98 96 108 112 105 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 154 153 153 151 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 55 54 60 65 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 6 9 7 10 15 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 4 2 14 -12 -23 -11 -34 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 2 4 3 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 864 887 911 944 977 1069 1173 1257 1345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 55 50 43 34 20 15 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 109.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/07/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.44 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/07/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##