* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 54 63 67 64 63 60 58 55 54 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 54 63 67 64 63 60 58 55 54 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 35 36 36 35 33 32 31 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 6 7 7 13 13 11 6 9 13 15 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 5 3 3 7 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -5 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 78 71 69 64 68 90 78 110 77 119 159 127 99 80 83 78 54 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.1 26.5 26.3 26.7 27.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 162 160 157 157 148 140 136 124 128 125 129 133 144 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 69 65 61 57 55 52 52 52 53 52 54 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 13 13 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 16 32 37 51 48 62 50 12 7 20 16 12 15 26 32 200 MB DIV 82 75 63 75 78 111 88 49 -6 -14 -33 -38 -16 -4 0 10 1 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -8 -1 -4 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 784 805 835 888 931 1101 1194 1352 1489 1629 1786 1932 2054 2170 2313 2464 2558 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.6 14.3 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.1 107.4 108.9 110.4 113.3 116.5 119.4 121.9 123.8 125.5 127.0 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 14 15 15 15 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 6 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 36 33 27 41 12 12 6 0 6 1 3 5 11 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 21. 34. 43. 48. 44. 43. 40. 38. 35. 34. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 105.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 18.0% 9.4% 4.4% 0.7% 7.4% 8.8% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 7.5% 3.5% 1.6% 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##