* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 48 54 55 54 53 52 50 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 48 54 55 54 53 52 50 49 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 27 27 26 25 24 22 20 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 7 8 4 3 10 5 14 17 12 13 15 16 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 3 1 10 4 5 0 0 6 5 0 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 64 68 64 61 83 155 99 145 100 121 144 165 141 126 106 94 86 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.1 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.9 26.4 26.8 26.6 27.0 27.3 28.0 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 162 158 159 155 145 144 127 130 128 131 134 142 147 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 73 73 71 66 64 59 56 53 52 53 48 50 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 14 30 38 47 47 55 55 20 -1 0 16 11 20 26 25 200 MB DIV 94 68 56 50 60 107 127 84 31 -15 -28 -32 -41 -27 -22 -8 -19 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -6 -1 -1 -6 1 -2 5 6 4 6 1 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 769 787 832 884 944 1119 1255 1411 1544 1676 1808 1936 2041 2128 2225 2307 2370 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 107.0 108.4 109.9 112.9 115.9 119.1 121.7 123.9 125.4 126.8 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 12 9 7 6 4 4 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 35 36 31 49 18 19 13 2 11 3 4 6 11 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 28. 34. 35. 35. 33. 32. 30. 29. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 104.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 10.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 3.6% 2.4% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##