* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 09/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 46 47 48 49 49 50 51 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 46 47 48 49 49 50 51 54 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 27 26 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 9 6 4 5 1 4 3 9 10 11 9 13 11 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 119 127 144 166 185 168 165 160 135 152 176 174 150 155 159 164 112 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.8 26.4 27.0 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 142 141 142 145 141 141 142 128 134 132 139 141 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 55 55 54 53 52 51 54 54 58 59 63 60 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 43 60 60 71 95 102 104 79 76 80 79 63 52 34 12 -9 200 MB DIV 38 26 13 18 37 34 34 21 12 28 46 28 4 -18 -14 -14 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 3 -2 9 2 7 7 6 1 1 2 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 672 685 721 783 833 930 1075 1244 1429 1612 1805 1989 2175 2229 2109 1999 1923 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.5 115.0 115.7 116.5 118.1 120.1 122.1 124.3 126.5 128.8 130.7 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 7 8 13 10 11 15 1 5 9 16 12 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. 32. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 114.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 09/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 2.6% 4.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.8% 5.9% 0.2% 0.0% 7.1% 7.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 09/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##