* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 07/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 60 66 67 70 69 71 69 65 62 56 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 60 66 67 70 69 71 69 65 62 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 43 48 52 56 59 60 59 55 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 12 16 19 15 12 14 16 11 10 10 16 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 0 -3 -10 -5 -4 -6 -3 -2 -3 -6 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 333 339 356 51 60 83 76 71 50 46 43 41 19 21 1 360 355 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 27.0 27.2 27.8 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.3 25.4 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 153 153 134 136 142 129 126 129 127 121 115 114 116 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 80 82 83 80 78 75 71 69 69 68 66 64 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 15 16 15 16 15 19 19 22 23 23 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 -10 2 9 21 28 48 59 67 61 54 41 25 -1 -4 5 200 MB DIV 51 102 104 80 60 87 78 69 59 70 76 50 77 71 34 34 46 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -8 -8 -8 -4 -6 -6 -7 -6 -7 -6 -10 -7 -8 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1115 1187 1268 1285 1305 1377 1476 1580 1668 1744 1831 1898 1974 2027 2067 2150 2143 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 6 8 7 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 15 16 3 3 14 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 13. 13. 17. 16. 14. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 30. 36. 37. 40. 39. 41. 39. 35. 32. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 111.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 19.1% 17.0% 15.9% 0.0% 15.0% 13.1% 11.6% Logistic: 3.0% 14.2% 5.6% 2.4% 0.4% 4.1% 16.3% 13.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 12.0% 7.9% 6.2% 0.1% 6.4% 9.8% 8.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 13.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##