* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/08/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 12 19 23 23 28 39 41 50 44 44 35 35 29 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 4 2 6 4 5 -2 7 2 2 2 8 2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 204 225 222 206 208 220 231 243 251 245 256 268 277 279 282 303 276 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.0 24.2 24.7 25.6 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 150 146 144 141 136 130 122 111 102 107 116 118 113 107 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 5 2 5 3 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 64 65 65 66 62 58 53 50 44 44 44 48 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -39 -30 -28 -24 -19 -19 -30 -22 -32 -27 -28 -31 -62 -51 -62 -49 200 MB DIV 66 62 67 90 93 76 57 31 13 11 -32 -26 -53 -31 -35 -37 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 661 665 657 649 631 605 583 546 491 387 281 196 137 94 43 16 -19 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.5 107.9 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.9 108.5 108.0 107.5 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 16 14 14 13 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -9. -15. -22. -28. -31. -32. -34. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -12. -19. -28. -34. -40. -41. -42. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 105.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 24.2% 16.5% 14.2% 0.0% 15.7% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.5% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 5.3% 4.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##