* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 9 14 25 22 27 33 43 44 46 38 43 36 41 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 1 2 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 0 7 0 7 SHEAR DIR 193 214 226 212 192 207 214 234 248 244 256 267 280 287 288 303 300 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 153 148 144 139 136 128 123 115 107 100 104 111 118 122 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 64 65 64 65 63 60 56 51 48 42 44 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -34 -36 -29 -25 -19 -9 -22 -16 -28 -24 -23 -15 -28 -31 -45 -38 200 MB DIV 74 65 73 85 103 130 87 51 50 0 4 -23 -46 -34 -13 -48 -43 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 4 2 2 2 2 1 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 644 646 632 622 616 584 584 571 521 438 334 243 198 170 137 92 10 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.7 106.5 107.1 107.6 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.1 108.8 108.4 107.9 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 4 4 6 5 5 2 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 27 19 14 12 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 22. 21. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -25. -28. -30. -32. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -2. -10. -19. -26. -32. -37. -39. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 104.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 26.9% 19.8% 16.8% 0.0% 18.9% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 16.9% 11.2% 4.8% 0.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 15.1% 10.5% 7.2% 0.2% 6.9% 5.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##