* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 05/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 46 51 51 47 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 43 46 51 51 47 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 40 42 43 39 35 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 10 13 23 26 27 36 44 52 57 54 50 43 42 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 2 2 0 9 5 6 3 0 -1 -3 4 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 80 191 215 217 206 200 218 221 237 239 253 268 283 273 272 285 311 SST (C) 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.2 24.3 22.7 23.9 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 155 151 146 139 133 127 118 113 104 87 98 103 105 109 116 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 5 2 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 63 63 63 63 59 56 50 48 45 46 46 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -25 -29 -29 -29 -15 -13 -18 -22 -15 -29 -5 -14 -28 -44 -40 -47 200 MB DIV 93 69 66 81 96 121 106 57 57 27 9 -26 -40 -43 -8 -40 -30 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 0 2 1 0 9 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 618 589 578 575 570 553 544 557 522 462 365 283 233 234 216 194 155 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.1 20.1 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.9 105.7 106.5 107.1 108.0 108.6 109.2 109.4 109.3 108.9 108.4 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 3 5 6 5 3 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 55 35 23 17 13 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -14. -22. -29. -34. -37. -41. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 21. 21. 17. 10. -1. -12. -24. -33. -42. -48. -55. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 103.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.3% 51.5% 35.1% 22.3% 0.0% 25.3% 22.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.4% 32.1% 25.3% 13.7% 1.9% 6.5% 1.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 6.8% 11.6% 6.6% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.5% 31.7% 22.3% 12.9% 0.7% 10.7% 7.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##