* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 12 16 27 33 39 41 34 24 23 31 27 30 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 2 5 3 -2 -3 0 3 2 -4 -1 -9 -10 -6 SHEAR DIR 187 218 240 253 261 259 256 263 268 265 275 289 279 273 266 269 257 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.4 24.7 23.3 22.9 22.6 21.8 21.0 20.5 20.1 20.1 20.5 21.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 134 127 109 94 90 86 78 69 64 60 61 66 78 78 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 53 49 49 46 41 34 31 29 28 28 24 24 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -42 -41 -43 -40 -41 -16 -14 -33 -51 -52 -58 -62 -59 -52 -21 -14 200 MB DIV 35 2 -33 -41 -12 2 0 2 -9 -17 -37 7 -10 -19 -24 -18 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 3 4 11 11 16 20 15 4 -8 -16 -25 -20 -22 LAND (KM) 1195 1167 1145 1132 1130 1132 1121 1152 1188 1207 1200 1146 1048 935 830 730 633 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.7 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.7 116.3 116.8 117.5 118.9 120.2 121.4 122.5 123.6 124.3 124.4 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 15 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -27. -36. -45. -50. -53. -56. -60. -64. -70. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 115.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##