* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 46 45 38 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 46 45 38 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 27 27 26 23 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 7 1 4 10 14 21 28 34 36 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 9 8 6 -1 0 3 4 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 202 200 218 210 187 147 246 266 263 257 252 268 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.5 24.3 23.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 152 145 138 133 127 116 104 94 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 61 57 55 54 51 50 43 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 -9 -16 -26 -40 -48 -54 -32 -23 -20 -32 200 MB DIV 138 213 223 182 140 79 0 -13 -12 0 -5 -5 -11 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 -5 0 1 1 1 7 8 12 8 LAND (KM) 1309 1344 1374 1406 1408 1353 1278 1238 1207 1174 1170 1176 1176 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.2 12.1 13.2 14.1 15.1 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.1 115.9 116.5 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.5 120.3 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 61 51 46 44 42 32 16 7 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 21. 20. 13. 4. -5. -12. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 113.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.46 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 179.2 -33.0 to 156.2 1.00 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.44 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.2% 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 39.8% 33.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.9% 9.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 15.1% 13.1% 1.1% 0.1% 13.6% 11.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##