* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 50 46 41 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 50 46 41 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 49 46 39 33 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 11 8 18 17 22 24 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 8 8 13 3 5 1 6 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 189 170 187 177 161 164 161 193 184 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 25.9 25.2 24.6 22.5 22.9 22.1 21.6 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 122 115 109 87 90 81 74 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 59 56 53 50 42 43 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 18 16 15 15 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 21 30 26 2 8 0 19 14 38 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 9 19 -4 -22 15 28 4 34 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -8 -7 -19 -5 -5 0 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 88 132 175 161 205 358 475 523 473 425 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.4 26.0 27.3 28.4 29.3 30.2 30.9 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 117.0 119.1 120.9 122.3 122.8 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -10. -17. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -31. -37. -48. -59. -61. -64. -68. -70. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.6 112.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##