* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 65 61 60 55 48 46 42 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 65 61 60 55 48 46 42 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 58 56 50 43 38 31 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 7 8 7 14 14 17 18 22 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 5 7 10 4 5 0 3 7 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 282 243 184 174 183 164 167 165 194 192 207 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 25.8 24.6 23.5 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.5 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 140 137 121 109 97 85 84 83 85 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 62 60 59 56 55 52 45 46 41 40 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 18 18 15 14 15 15 13 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 31 31 29 32 15 17 -5 20 14 23 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 43 42 21 19 -11 13 7 11 29 28 20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -2 -2 -4 -12 -10 -7 0 -1 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 80 81 95 115 108 203 214 291 424 475 479 472 368 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.6 23.9 25.0 26.2 27.3 28.5 29.3 29.6 30.4 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.8 111.4 112.1 112.7 114.3 116.2 117.9 119.9 120.9 121.1 121.5 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 8 4 3 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -27. -29. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -9. -10. -15. -22. -24. -28. -34. -43. -51. -58. -60. -62. -65. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.2 110.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 22.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##