* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 84 94 103 115 121 120 112 102 90 78 68 57 48 39 31 V (KT) LAND 65 74 84 94 103 115 121 120 112 102 90 78 68 57 48 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 65 75 85 95 104 119 128 122 107 94 79 62 49 39 30 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 6 3 4 6 11 15 16 14 12 17 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -2 -3 -7 -8 -6 -2 0 3 2 4 0 8 0 9 1 SHEAR DIR 5 27 65 108 179 143 193 156 135 145 141 148 176 165 174 190 198 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.4 28.9 27.6 26.7 26.5 25.0 23.6 23.2 22.1 21.5 20.9 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 169 167 162 159 153 139 130 128 112 98 94 82 76 69 66 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 7 7 8 6 7 5 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 78 78 75 74 70 62 54 56 53 55 49 48 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 22 24 25 29 31 31 30 28 26 25 21 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 22 18 35 54 54 76 76 73 64 48 46 43 48 31 40 200 MB DIV 59 99 122 118 125 115 85 88 57 27 -5 -3 3 -1 10 -4 9 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -6 -7 -3 0 0 -3 -6 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 403 386 368 374 375 432 368 269 261 241 321 356 443 574 647 676 634 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.9 18.2 19.6 20.8 22.1 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 103.6 105.0 106.2 107.4 109.1 110.3 111.3 112.5 113.9 115.4 117.1 119.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 32 28 30 19 17 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 18. 16. 14. 10. 8. 3. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 29. 38. 50. 56. 55. 47. 37. 25. 13. 3. -8. -17. -26. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.8 102.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 15.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 19.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.90 21.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.71 17.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 16.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 11.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -15.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 6.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 89% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 19.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 77% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 89.2% 100.0% 98.4% 94.6% 80.3% 76.7% 61.6% 19.5% Logistic: 61.3% 79.7% 75.3% 66.9% 40.5% 65.6% 51.7% 6.3% Bayesian: 66.3% 80.3% 87.8% 81.5% 30.8% 73.7% 15.9% 0.4% Consensus: 72.3% 86.6% 87.2% 81.0% 50.5% 72.0% 43.1% 8.7% DTOPS: 67.0% 82.0% 83.0% 68.0% 58.0% 67.0% 35.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##