* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 30 30 30 32 33 35 37 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 30 30 30 32 33 35 37 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 27 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 20 18 21 22 18 16 12 9 6 7 6 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 -5 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 67 75 71 68 66 47 48 52 48 55 44 24 45 100 128 126 121 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 135 137 138 139 139 138 137 135 134 134 133 134 134 134 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 54 54 55 49 50 50 51 50 50 48 47 45 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -3 3 10 13 22 19 23 13 2 -8 -6 -1 5 13 15 15 200 MB DIV 21 21 15 0 -2 18 -10 -16 -24 7 5 6 -13 -9 8 -5 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2237 2264 2291 2338 2385 2374 2330 2278 2258 2220 2186 2145 2118 2066 2001 1961 1952 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.3 131.7 132.2 132.6 133.3 133.7 134.1 134.2 134.5 134.8 135.2 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 130.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.2% 6.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##