* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 38 38 41 42 42 40 38 36 35 34 32 30 27 26 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 38 38 41 42 42 40 38 36 35 34 32 30 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 35 33 31 30 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 25 24 19 17 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 194 193 206 217 210 196 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 141 146 145 146 145 146 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 37 38 39 43 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -52 -59 -64 -66 -73 -81 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 11 20 5 -6 11 -12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 0 0 4 5 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 600 781 962 1157 1353 1771 2167 2553 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.4 26.5 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.7 167.5 169.2 171.2 173.1 177.2 181.0 184.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 15 27 16 14 13 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.8 165.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##