* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 71 67 63 58 55 55 54 50 45 42 40 40 37 34 33 V (KT) LAND 85 78 71 67 63 58 55 55 54 50 45 42 40 40 37 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 74 69 65 60 58 55 53 50 47 43 41 40 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 13 17 18 18 18 19 16 23 25 25 22 14 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 4 5 5 8 10 8 7 8 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 187 206 220 211 196 198 192 197 197 204 223 240 260 323 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.2 27.3 27.0 27.4 27.5 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.4 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 121 124 127 139 136 140 141 147 149 146 146 150 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 42 42 39 38 38 40 42 45 44 47 48 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 15 13 15 14 12 9 7 6 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -8 -7 -17 -9 -3 -20 -21 -29 -34 -44 -49 -46 -62 -68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 17 23 19 10 34 25 18 32 25 12 0 1 7 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 6 4 -3 0 2 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 4 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 598 433 275 165 105 1 101 431 793 1144 1472 1802 2133 2442 2739 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.1 150.7 152.2 153.5 154.9 157.9 161.1 164.3 167.8 171.2 174.4 177.6 180.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 14 8 13 17 21 18 14 14 13 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. -30. -31. -35. -40. -43. -45. -45. -48. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.1 149.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 709.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##