* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 74 71 67 62 57 54 50 49 47 47 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 74 71 67 62 57 54 50 49 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 71 75 80 78 73 64 55 48 43 39 34 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 7 8 12 9 16 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 1 0 3 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 42 35 12 355 345 311 258 264 176 191 168 191 210 229 235 261 279 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.5 25.9 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 149 150 147 146 142 141 124 127 122 121 125 128 135 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 69 70 70 68 63 62 58 55 52 49 43 40 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 10 11 13 14 15 14 14 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 38 47 58 47 30 0 -9 -6 -7 -10 -7 -14 -8 -10 -12 200 MB DIV 35 30 38 39 33 19 37 14 14 0 -18 -24 -25 -17 -18 -26 -19 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 2 4 0 3 4 4 5 1 4 2 1 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1665 1773 1884 1988 2096 2307 2440 2217 1885 1579 1304 1016 696 366 122 421 641 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 12.8 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.2 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 16.4 16.8 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.4 124.5 125.8 127.0 129.7 132.2 134.8 137.7 140.4 142.9 145.6 148.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 16 18 19 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 12 11 10 15 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 25. 26. 24. 21. 17. 12. 7. 4. 0. -1. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.1 122.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.8% 35.9% 33.8% 26.1% 17.4% 31.5% 24.8% 11.3% Logistic: 15.8% 30.2% 30.5% 18.1% 14.6% 14.6% 13.7% 15.2% Bayesian: 7.9% 12.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.9% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 26.2% 22.5% 15.1% 11.0% 16.3% 13.6% 8.8% DTOPS: 15.0% 22.0% 15.0% 13.0% 8.0% 19.0% 15.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##