* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 55 53 49 42 36 32 28 25 22 20 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 55 53 49 42 36 32 28 25 22 20 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 53 51 46 39 34 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 10 12 8 16 15 13 14 9 8 8 9 18 23 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 3 4 6 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 1 0 2 4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 351 331 318 331 345 285 327 349 347 356 340 320 296 285 289 290 266 SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.7 26.0 25.2 24.6 24.5 25.1 25.1 23.9 24.6 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 139 135 142 125 116 110 109 115 115 102 110 105 107 111 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 66 62 59 58 58 55 51 47 45 44 42 39 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 20 20 18 16 14 13 11 10 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 1 -5 -18 -4 -3 9 31 48 56 48 46 25 18 -10 -23 200 MB DIV 71 64 66 46 40 28 7 -13 -16 -8 -19 1 -12 -8 -28 -1 -15 700-850 TADV -11 -3 -2 -12 -20 -11 -20 -10 -6 -2 -3 0 0 7 10 7 6 LAND (KM) 611 607 623 691 775 920 1132 1372 1558 1784 2029 2181 1921 1635 1332 1020 699 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.7 17.5 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.1 113.1 114.3 115.6 118.2 121.0 123.7 126.2 128.8 131.5 134.2 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 12 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. -3. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.5 111.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 23.0% 21.0% 20.2% 11.8% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 12.1% 6.9% 2.9% 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 11.8% 9.3% 7.7% 4.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##