* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 59 68 76 75 71 68 64 60 56 52 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 59 68 76 75 71 68 64 60 56 52 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 40 37 35 34 33 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 8 7 6 2 2 11 11 7 3 5 2 6 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 7 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 20 347 331 346 16 136 15 329 334 346 347 15 234 288 277 252 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.1 28.3 27.0 26.4 25.3 24.8 25.1 24.5 25.0 23.6 24.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 155 155 146 148 135 128 117 112 115 108 113 98 105 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 77 74 74 73 69 69 65 60 54 50 47 44 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 15 20 22 27 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 8 4 -1 -14 5 12 19 41 64 84 96 98 85 79 56 200 MB DIV 89 79 70 51 55 82 101 87 17 -2 0 -2 1 -27 9 14 -4 700-850 TADV 6 2 -2 0 0 -6 -5 -14 -16 -16 -5 -3 -3 -1 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 481 485 518 587 690 767 867 1019 1152 1345 1554 1750 1953 2133 2144 1924 1675 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 17 16 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 15 14 13 9 22 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 9. 13. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 13. 11. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 34. 43. 51. 50. 46. 43. 39. 35. 31. 27. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 38.8% 18.4% 10.5% 6.1% 29.9% 35.1% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 22.2% 12.5% 3.6% 2.1% 16.1% 17.6% 2.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##