* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 38 40 39 34 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 38 40 39 34 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 27 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 21 21 25 30 25 25 19 26 21 25 18 8 13 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 2 3 -2 7 0 10 0 2 2 1 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 24 19 6 350 339 333 305 288 286 265 250 246 187 122 71 45 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.9 29.2 27.2 23.9 21.8 21.9 21.4 22.3 24.4 25.5 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 162 165 158 138 105 83 83 78 87 107 117 118 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 8 7 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 76 76 73 74 70 67 61 56 52 49 48 49 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 9 6 14 -4 0 16 18 24 18 39 70 85 96 98 78 60 200 MB DIV 129 85 70 75 62 49 50 55 54 19 20 10 -12 -1 -1 -26 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 2 3 -1 -18 -6 -39 -14 -37 0 -21 -6 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 565 544 491 427 350 236 272 250 361 615 874 1221 1576 1891 2066 2109 2074 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.2 15.2 17.4 19.1 20.7 21.9 22.8 23.0 22.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.4 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.9 107.9 110.5 113.9 118.0 121.9 125.5 128.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 16 18 19 18 16 16 12 7 0 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 19 19 19 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. -21. -22. -19. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 9. 4. -0. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 100.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.5% 3.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##