* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 31 36 42 46 45 42 38 36 32 29 25 22 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 31 36 42 46 45 42 38 36 32 29 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 16 14 12 18 16 17 20 21 12 7 12 16 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 0 1 4 3 0 5 4 0 9 11 4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 36 29 2 19 26 353 331 318 273 253 256 239 178 125 72 37 1 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 25.4 24.5 23.6 23.4 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 152 157 157 154 148 119 110 101 98 109 111 112 113 105 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 3 1 0 0 1 2 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 82 82 82 79 74 72 69 65 66 67 65 67 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 3 4 13 13 22 15 18 16 16 24 70 91 88 45 32 15 200 MB DIV 116 151 173 165 155 139 87 88 94 89 38 -10 22 7 -3 -3 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -1 1 1 1 -20 -11 -10 -10 -12 -6 -2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 675 683 692 684 652 555 522 574 592 749 1038 1331 1596 1772 1850 1812 1779 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.2 12.0 13.9 15.9 17.8 19.1 19.9 19.9 19.3 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.1 101.3 102.5 103.6 105.8 108.3 110.9 114.0 117.3 120.9 124.2 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 17 17 14 10 6 2 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 18 30 17 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. 32. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 26. 25. 22. 18. 16. 12. 9. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 99.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 11.4% 4.9% 2.4% 0.6% 14.1% 45.0% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 4.7% 15.1% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##