* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 69 63 58 49 39 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 75 69 63 58 49 39 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 75 67 61 55 46 40 34 28 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 7 9 13 22 39 43 42 32 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 1 0 1 1 -8 -11 -4 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 172 200 222 254 268 291 305 315 311 298 282 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.9 26.0 25.3 24.9 25.2 24.8 25.0 25.4 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 122 124 116 113 116 112 114 118 126 126 127 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 49 49 45 41 40 39 44 50 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 8 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -18 -17 -3 5 17 18 25 24 28 11 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -25 -21 -16 -36 -34 -29 -19 -16 -15 26 -14 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 1 2 8 5 0 2 3 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2045 2123 2204 2254 2139 1889 1620 1384 1141 916 739 631 656 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.1 15.5 15.1 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.5 132.6 133.7 134.8 137.3 140.1 142.6 145.3 148.1 151.0 153.9 156.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -11. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -16. -22. -27. -36. -46. -56. -65. -74. -78. -81. -84. -83. -81. -78. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.3 130.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##