* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 73 79 83 88 87 81 78 75 73 70 68 65 62 60 56 V (KT) LAND 60 67 73 79 83 88 87 81 78 75 73 70 68 65 62 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 77 80 82 80 76 72 70 69 69 67 62 56 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 7 7 2 3 6 9 4 4 6 6 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 -6 -5 1 0 -2 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 60 50 42 53 117 58 104 213 49 73 104 125 45 2 22 290 299 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.9 26.9 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.9 26.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 143 139 137 131 129 127 126 133 133 135 132 122 122 126 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 67 65 63 56 51 49 51 50 49 53 55 53 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -26 -27 -20 -21 -13 -12 4 8 10 2 11 0 -11 -21 -9 -8 200 MB DIV 36 25 23 44 28 -20 -49 -36 7 -6 -18 -28 -13 -19 -29 -22 10 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1093 1146 1206 1260 1303 1420 1553 1684 1838 1981 2128 2294 2224 2039 1875 1722 1562 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.2 118.2 119.1 119.9 121.4 122.9 124.5 126.3 128.1 130.2 132.3 134.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 10 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 10 6 8 2 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 23. 28. 27. 21. 18. 15. 13. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.0 116.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.8% 48.9% 42.1% 33.5% 25.6% 21.1% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 26.9% 44.0% 33.6% 29.3% 16.7% 13.3% 3.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 3.0% 10.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 20.3% 34.4% 26.0% 21.3% 14.3% 11.7% 5.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 28.0% 56.0% 43.0% 40.0% 22.0% 27.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##