* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 60 66 71 73 70 66 64 64 62 61 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 60 66 71 73 70 66 64 64 62 61 60 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 60 63 68 70 70 67 61 55 51 49 46 44 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 3 5 4 5 2 1 6 5 4 9 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -4 -1 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -7 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 51 52 54 25 40 87 49 147 258 333 117 149 163 195 251 269 287 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 152 149 143 138 134 127 129 123 126 131 135 131 125 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 68 69 67 65 56 52 50 51 47 45 45 48 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -25 -27 -30 -31 -29 -23 -21 -8 -8 -7 -9 -5 -9 2 -3 8 200 MB DIV 33 32 32 21 17 30 0 -47 -53 5 -18 -28 -52 -37 -41 -46 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 -4 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1041 1059 1093 1138 1191 1299 1408 1507 1629 1749 1898 2059 2270 2262 2094 1861 1542 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.2 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.7 115.9 117.0 118.0 119.7 121.1 122.5 123.9 125.4 127.4 129.6 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 9 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 31 24 11 7 5 3 1 2 0 1 4 8 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 21. 26. 28. 25. 21. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 113.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 25.1% 22.8% 22.4% 13.5% 21.1% 21.1% 11.4% Logistic: 11.6% 28.9% 20.7% 13.9% 6.3% 14.5% 8.2% 4.7% Bayesian: 3.2% 10.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 21.6% 15.0% 12.2% 6.8% 12.3% 9.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 13.0% 23.0% 20.0% 18.0% 10.0% 16.0% 10.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##