* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 07/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 54 60 61 56 51 46 38 32 25 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 54 60 61 56 51 46 38 32 25 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 48 48 44 39 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 5 4 4 6 8 9 16 17 16 17 22 26 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 1 -2 0 -3 0 1 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 58 53 52 10 347 293 267 247 232 226 252 244 255 249 249 258 270 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.2 26.3 25.6 24.7 23.9 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 158 154 149 135 125 118 108 101 86 82 80 79 77 80 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 67 66 66 66 61 57 53 49 47 44 40 35 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 11 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -16 -17 -23 -24 -25 -16 -12 6 3 18 -4 5 0 -1 -18 200 MB DIV 16 9 23 37 30 17 17 4 -10 -25 -28 -22 -29 -48 -36 -39 -52 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 4 3 2 8 9 11 15 12 10 LAND (KM) 869 897 955 1003 998 1009 1044 1065 1076 1101 1159 1198 1296 1441 1615 1709 1869 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.4 111.7 112.9 114.1 116.0 117.5 118.7 119.7 120.7 122.0 123.7 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 10 7 6 6 6 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 18 17 27 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 20. 17. 14. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 31. 26. 21. 16. 8. 2. -5. -13. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 109.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 18.1% 17.5% 16.9% 0.0% 17.3% 14.8% 11.7% Logistic: 3.6% 18.2% 12.0% 5.8% 2.0% 9.9% 6.4% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 12.8% 9.9% 7.6% 0.7% 9.1% 7.3% 5.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##