* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 07/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 57 57 57 51 43 36 28 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 57 57 57 51 43 36 28 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 38 36 32 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 6 4 3 5 9 10 17 21 18 21 19 23 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -4 -1 1 0 -1 0 4 0 6 0 1 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 58 59 58 51 13 336 279 244 224 218 236 225 230 233 236 241 252 SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.7 27.9 26.4 25.7 24.6 23.8 22.4 21.3 21.1 21.5 21.4 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 157 159 158 152 143 126 119 107 100 86 74 72 76 75 75 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 68 67 67 66 59 55 52 47 48 44 41 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 13 15 13 15 14 12 9 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -19 -17 -18 -21 -24 -19 -21 -1 -1 2 -5 -13 -3 -2 -6 200 MB DIV 2 6 21 38 35 36 18 27 -11 -24 -33 -22 -26 -34 -26 -6 -15 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 1 0 2 0 1 2 4 2 6 8 9 12 13 6 LAND (KM) 848 875 905 963 1025 1000 1029 1049 1054 1055 1088 1100 1139 1250 1392 1519 1638 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 109.2 110.4 111.7 112.9 115.1 116.9 118.3 119.4 120.4 121.4 122.9 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 7 6 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 25 23 18 17 28 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 26. 27. 27. 25. 21. 18. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 11. 9. 12. 10. 7. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 23. 32. 32. 32. 26. 18. 11. 3. -4. -12. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 107.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.66 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 8.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 5.4% 4.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.4% 4.4% 0.5% 0.2% 6.7% 5.9% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##