* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 07/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 28 34 40 43 43 43 41 40 36 33 29 26 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 28 34 40 43 43 43 41 40 36 33 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 12 8 8 13 15 18 18 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 54 51 48 40 47 35 1 341 322 297 287 277 288 274 281 270 269 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.4 27.7 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.3 23.1 22.1 22.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 152 151 154 153 154 148 140 124 121 113 105 92 82 83 84 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 72 72 72 69 68 66 64 63 59 57 54 53 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -27 -26 -20 -6 -7 -10 -11 -9 0 8 6 8 -8 -7 -9 200 MB DIV -12 -18 -2 2 11 25 79 47 33 -3 -31 -12 -2 -6 -18 -29 -33 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 2 -3 2 5 2 4 5 5 5 6 LAND (KM) 823 839 836 856 875 932 992 942 937 955 972 1006 1078 1145 1214 1309 1455 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.5 15.8 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.9 107.1 108.4 110.9 113.2 114.9 116.3 117.5 118.6 119.7 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 13 12 9 8 7 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 26 18 22 18 16 26 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. 34. 32. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 16. 13. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 103.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 6.6% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.2% 4.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##