* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 38 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 38 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 41 38 35 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 2 6 14 12 12 13 14 19 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 356 338 337 242 272 256 254 257 276 292 293 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.2 23.2 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.5 23.3 23.2 24.0 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 95 95 93 90 88 88 87 88 96 95 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 60 59 56 52 50 49 45 42 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 19 17 14 12 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 67 65 59 59 57 48 43 27 21 3 -2 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 6 2 -26 -24 -25 -9 -15 -2 -17 -6 -8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 -3 0 12 3 6 13 1 9 -3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 1039 1109 1176 1249 1429 1639 1800 1926 1811 1537 1306 1116 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.6 122.8 123.9 125.0 127.4 130.0 132.7 135.1 137.8 140.6 143.0 145.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -23. -30. -37. -46. -52. -58. -62. -66. -66. -66. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##