* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 60 59 54 48 42 36 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 60 59 54 48 42 36 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 55 47 40 34 29 25 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 7 6 4 4 4 12 12 10 10 10 13 24 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 8 SHEAR DIR 57 56 34 37 35 48 350 264 262 259 268 293 320 312 290 261 278 SST (C) 27.7 27.1 26.7 25.6 24.4 23.2 22.9 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 136 132 121 108 96 92 87 88 87 88 95 100 104 108 114 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 73 72 70 64 60 56 52 50 48 44 37 30 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 25 23 21 19 18 15 13 10 8 6 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 45 40 40 49 56 62 73 60 51 38 41 27 22 11 11 200 MB DIV 53 30 25 35 12 10 8 -23 -18 -14 -30 -26 -35 -23 -10 5 2 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -7 -5 5 -2 7 6 2 13 1 7 4 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 529 551 604 646 708 902 1069 1269 1482 1721 1884 1927 1623 1327 1036 746 473 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.6 114.8 116.2 117.5 120.3 123.1 125.7 128.3 131.0 133.7 136.5 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -24. -32. -39. -44. -49. -53. -55. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.7 112.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##