* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 71 75 81 81 72 62 54 44 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 71 75 81 81 72 62 54 44 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 64 66 68 66 58 50 43 37 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 9 11 7 7 6 7 5 1 7 9 10 13 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 0 5 5 8 6 4 SHEAR DIR 10 337 20 28 30 45 94 103 105 76 231 290 288 272 254 254 247 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.0 24.9 23.7 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.5 23.0 23.6 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 143 139 134 113 101 94 92 90 88 88 93 99 102 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 80 78 76 78 78 74 70 65 58 55 54 53 48 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 24 24 26 27 24 22 21 18 16 14 12 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 28 32 37 39 55 58 96 93 84 78 66 40 22 20 0 200 MB DIV 125 123 84 62 52 31 38 6 50 5 -16 -27 7 -7 -2 1 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 1 0 0 2 3 8 10 7 7 LAND (KM) 499 532 576 584 566 607 714 876 1050 1248 1476 1728 1913 1939 1670 1416 1189 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.1 112.1 114.2 116.8 119.6 122.2 124.9 127.8 130.7 133.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 26. 26. 17. 7. -1. -11. -19. -27. -33. -39. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 108.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 46.7% 34.0% 22.3% 16.7% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 21.7% 10.8% 6.3% 2.0% 5.9% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 23.1% 15.0% 9.6% 6.2% 10.2% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 33.0% 24.0% 17.0% 10.0% 21.0% 8.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##