* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 53 63 69 72 72 67 61 53 46 37 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 53 63 69 72 72 67 61 53 46 37 31 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 49 54 55 53 48 42 37 32 28 24 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 8 5 12 17 15 9 4 3 3 5 11 11 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -5 -2 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 -4 0 -2 0 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 11 7 355 36 63 52 49 41 60 29 60 285 293 283 293 276 271 SST (C) 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.0 24.0 23.7 23.0 22.5 22.9 22.1 22.6 23.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 152 147 148 145 144 135 124 104 101 93 88 92 84 89 95 101 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 79 79 78 78 78 79 73 69 63 58 56 54 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 21 24 26 28 29 28 27 23 22 18 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 3 11 11 29 38 52 67 93 121 128 133 127 107 81 67 200 MB DIV 105 122 151 150 113 72 55 34 25 34 28 -8 0 -21 -6 -3 -16 700-850 TADV -9 -6 0 -3 -4 0 -5 -6 -7 0 -2 4 2 -3 8 3 12 LAND (KM) 585 593 599 603 629 687 674 732 808 970 1099 1298 1545 1787 1941 1852 1580 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.3 21.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.0 108.0 108.9 109.8 111.6 113.5 115.6 118.0 120.6 123.2 125.9 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 18 13 11 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 13. 11. 6. 4. -0. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 29. 32. 32. 27. 21. 13. 6. -3. -9. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 106.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.83 8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 30.3% 27.5% 19.2% 14.5% 22.8% 22.0% 10.8% Logistic: 2.7% 27.2% 15.8% 9.0% 2.8% 15.8% 13.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 20.2% 15.2% 9.5% 5.8% 13.1% 11.9% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##