* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 53 65 73 77 75 69 65 58 49 41 34 29 23 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 53 65 73 77 75 69 65 58 49 41 34 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 54 61 65 63 55 48 41 35 30 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 7 8 13 15 15 6 3 1 5 7 12 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -4 1 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 13 8 8 353 28 77 41 40 56 54 77 130 280 274 287 288 288 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.7 24.6 23.8 23.0 22.6 22.0 22.1 22.0 22.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 154 148 147 144 140 131 110 102 93 89 82 83 83 87 94 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 78 78 80 82 80 80 80 77 71 67 62 60 55 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 24 27 28 28 28 27 26 23 20 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -1 12 16 30 32 36 54 62 101 101 104 93 81 70 68 200 MB DIV 88 110 110 130 135 96 89 16 46 38 30 -7 -8 -18 -11 -10 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -3 -4 -3 -1 -6 -5 -3 0 1 3 -2 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 540 530 530 528 537 634 614 624 706 827 993 1141 1318 1526 1712 1868 1861 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.5 108.5 110.4 112.0 114.1 116.4 118.8 121.5 124.1 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 11 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 36 27 19 11 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 8. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 14. 13. 12. 9. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 33. 37. 35. 29. 25. 18. 9. 1. -6. -11. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 104.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.76 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 27.6% 26.5% 18.8% 0.0% 23.2% 22.5% 10.9% Logistic: 2.1% 18.1% 9.3% 5.2% 1.2% 15.5% 20.7% 4.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 6.8% 6.7% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 5.2% 17.5% 14.2% 8.4% 0.4% 13.3% 14.5% 5.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 23.0% 13.0% 10.0% 7.0% 19.0% 22.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##