* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 56 66 78 85 87 81 80 73 66 57 48 40 34 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 56 66 78 85 87 81 80 73 66 57 48 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 51 58 66 73 75 71 63 55 47 41 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 11 9 6 7 14 15 11 4 3 6 8 14 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 0 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 18 4 4 354 347 42 74 56 32 51 23 340 287 277 267 287 287 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.3 26.8 24.7 24.4 23.2 22.7 22.2 22.3 22.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 157 149 146 145 137 132 111 108 95 90 85 86 83 87 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 79 79 81 80 80 79 79 74 68 63 60 56 48 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 20 20 25 28 30 28 30 28 27 24 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -9 -2 7 13 30 27 40 62 80 109 109 117 118 100 91 200 MB DIV 57 92 108 103 126 125 100 73 34 39 44 23 1 -4 -20 -30 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -5 -5 -6 1 -5 -4 -5 -1 0 2 0 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 568 562 557 559 571 598 691 643 684 780 922 1058 1188 1371 1596 1762 1902 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.3 105.3 106.3 107.3 109.1 110.9 112.7 114.6 117.0 119.7 122.2 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 50 43 32 23 14 11 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 15. 19. 17. 19. 15. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 26. 38. 45. 47. 41. 40. 33. 26. 17. 8. -0. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.7 103.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.67 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 29.3% 27.9% 19.7% 0.0% 25.0% 32.2% 12.5% Logistic: 6.3% 33.7% 19.7% 11.6% 2.4% 35.0% 40.8% 13.1% Bayesian: 5.5% 34.2% 36.8% 12.7% 1.6% 15.9% 7.7% 9.4% Consensus: 8.8% 32.4% 28.1% 14.7% 1.3% 25.3% 26.9% 11.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 29.0% 19.0% 14.0% 9.0% 24.0% 26.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##