* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042021 06/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 42 41 37 36 38 38 38 40 43 45 47 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 42 41 37 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 39 37 33 29 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 15 16 15 10 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 4 8 10 10 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 68 76 84 92 152 209 202 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.4 27.0 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 162 163 159 161 135 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 75 73 69 61 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 14 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 52 55 58 71 59 62 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 102 136 143 144 107 -22 -25 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -7 -7 0 4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 336 337 336 275 234 79 24 -74 -171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 18.6 21.5 24.3 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.7 103.2 103.7 104.3 105.1 105.7 106.5 107.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 9 10 13 14 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 24 23 22 15 14 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 332 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 6. 2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042021 FOUR 06/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.20 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 31.9% 21.3% 19.8% 11.7% 20.3% 21.1% 13.3% Logistic: 7.4% 40.1% 20.5% 14.1% 2.4% 16.7% 2.7% 1.4% Bayesian: 2.5% 11.4% 11.0% 2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 27.8% 17.6% 12.3% 4.7% 12.9% 8.1% 4.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042021 FOUR 06/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##