* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME EP042021 06/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 44 47 41 38 38 38 38 41 43 46 47 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 44 47 36 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 38 37 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 17 17 19 16 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 4 2 9 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 62 75 82 93 117 144 153 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 28.8 28.2 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 164 165 154 147 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 80 78 78 77 72 67 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 18 16 14 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 52 61 61 71 84 52 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 82 115 150 133 106 69 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -7 -2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 317 313 311 295 256 140 -35 1 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 11 13 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 27 26 26 22 10 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 390 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 1. -8. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 14. 17. 11. 8. 8. 8. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 101.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042021 NONAME 06/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 24.1% 19.5% 18.1% 0.0% 19.0% 16.8% 18.6% Logistic: 3.2% 22.8% 9.3% 5.4% 1.2% 14.5% 11.6% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.9% 5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 17.9% 11.6% 8.2% 0.5% 11.5% 9.7% 7.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042021 NONAME 06/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##