* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 49 48 45 41 38 39 37 33 29 25 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 49 48 45 41 38 39 37 33 29 25 23 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 48 48 44 39 34 29 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 6 6 8 8 16 10 10 10 12 12 12 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 10 10 10 2 7 1 4 2 3 2 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 48 61 82 134 215 229 244 231 165 157 181 160 153 162 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.2 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 139 138 137 137 137 136 135 132 130 125 113 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 52 51 49 44 44 47 49 47 43 38 34 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 14 12 9 7 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 -2 0 7 26 50 76 82 76 58 37 27 13 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 72 64 48 12 -49 -54 1 18 -15 -7 -14 -19 -9 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1962 2002 2044 2109 2175 2230 2254 2308 2291 2244 2190 2108 2006 1887 1774 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.7 11.3 12.0 13.0 14.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.5 126.0 126.5 127.0 127.4 127.5 127.9 128.1 128.1 128.1 128.0 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 4 2 1 1 3 3 4 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 8 6 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.9 125.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.13 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 34.0% 21.6% 20.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 17.0% 32.6% 4.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 2.1% Bayesian: 4.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 18.0% 18.4% 8.5% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##