* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 22 24 25 27 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 22 24 25 27 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 15 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 14 14 12 8 11 13 15 15 14 10 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 2 5 -1 -1 5 6 SHEAR DIR 324 343 345 340 323 304 298 271 284 178 214 216 213 202 219 277 314 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.1 28.5 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 143 149 151 149 153 147 151 148 143 146 149 150 151 155 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 41 42 43 43 41 39 41 46 49 51 46 41 44 47 50 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -22 -17 -15 -10 -10 -10 -3 0 -5 -15 0 12 15 22 3 200 MB DIV -1 1 5 -4 -7 6 2 10 42 90 46 14 -8 0 2 33 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1258 1221 1190 1191 1196 1233 1342 1498 1617 1696 1809 1931 2101 2325 2591 2751 2676 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.4 9.0 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.7 150.0 151.5 153.1 154.7 158.2 161.6 164.8 167.6 169.9 171.9 173.7 175.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 16 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 9 10 12 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 28 38 48 54 45 32 40 35 39 45 51 40 32 31 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 148.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.16 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 9.6% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 5.7% 5.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##