* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 60 60 58 52 45 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 60 60 58 52 45 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 55 57 57 55 49 41 34 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 19 18 20 14 16 18 15 17 18 26 40 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 6 6 4 10 6 8 8 7 1 0 -4 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 241 244 243 253 277 262 241 271 252 244 237 261 281 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.0 26.2 25.6 25.3 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 154 151 145 138 134 133 129 123 121 123 116 113 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 61 60 53 50 45 44 42 39 37 37 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 13 14 13 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -12 -16 -19 -18 -12 3 9 9 3 11 3 -11 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 118 129 115 75 25 0 -18 -14 -11 0 -12 -8 -22 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 759 772 794 820 846 831 837 864 908 963 1032 1098 1144 1184 1221 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.6 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 43 26 18 13 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 10. 8. 2. -5. -15. -22. -29. -34. -39. -46. -51. -53. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.0 109.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 57.9% 42.3% 26.3% 19.7% 26.7% 16.0% 9.4% Logistic: 11.3% 14.4% 12.9% 4.9% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 16.8% 4.6% 4.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 25.6% 20.0% 10.9% 7.1% 9.3% 5.4% 3.2% DTOPS: 10.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##