* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022021 05/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 50 58 61 59 56 49 44 37 33 28 24 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 50 58 61 59 56 49 44 37 33 28 24 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 42 43 39 33 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 1 2 14 19 18 19 15 15 17 13 14 17 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 5 7 7 14 9 17 10 4 5 7 6 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 72 49 51 78 188 277 270 272 253 235 228 270 266 234 212 240 235 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.9 25.9 25.5 25.6 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 161 160 154 148 138 133 133 131 120 114 115 116 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 69 70 70 69 67 59 53 50 46 39 38 38 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 16 16 15 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -21 -28 -30 -20 -33 -23 -11 7 16 21 28 25 11 7 -4 200 MB DIV 82 106 100 133 126 67 62 72 67 12 -18 -23 -8 15 -25 -12 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -7 -4 -3 0 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 748 736 744 766 790 831 907 938 917 909 919 919 943 960 968 982 1001 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.8 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 106.8 107.8 108.7 110.4 111.8 112.5 113.4 113.7 113.9 114.5 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 1 2 5 5 2 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 37 31 36 47 49 20 15 8 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 28. 31. 29. 26. 19. 14. 7. 3. -2. -6. -13. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 104.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 TWO 05/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 13.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 11.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.96 13.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -9.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 61.4% 51.3% 38.8% 0.0% 53.0% 49.4% 38.6% Logistic: 5.2% 36.9% 26.1% 13.8% 0.7% 16.0% 2.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 33.6% 26.3% 17.7% 0.2% 23.0% 17.4% 13.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 27.0% 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 14.0% 10.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 TWO 05/31/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##