* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012020 04/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 20 24 33 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 2 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 261 259 256 260 256 249 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.2 23.9 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 127 122 115 101 103 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 53 50 50 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -42 -44 -47 -46 -27 -20 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -46 -13 9 13 19 -5 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 2 11 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1191 1182 1177 1194 1195 1268 1417 1614 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.2 117.7 118.5 119.2 121.0 123.1 125.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -22. -22. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -34. -41. -45. -49. -51. -51. -51. -50. -51. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 116.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012020 ONE 04/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012020 ONE 04/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##