* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 10/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 24 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 24 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 20 18 16 17 18 24 26 27 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 16 19 22 30 34 42 53 50 51 46 36 29 38 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 -2 0 -3 -10 -15 -6 5 0 0 1 -9 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 220 217 216 210 213 226 229 228 222 235 236 233 231 250 264 261 263 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.2 26.5 25.0 26.2 28.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 151 148 136 129 113 126 153 165 167 167 168 165 65 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.4 -55.6 -56.2 -57.0 -56.6 -55.9 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 1 2 1 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 46 47 45 43 44 45 48 51 54 50 50 44 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 9 8 22 14 4 -15 -29 -39 -23 -9 24 12 30 -7 10 200 MB DIV 14 6 10 19 18 36 18 46 39 59 40 13 35 30 12 34 36 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 2 4 8 8 10 9 7 3 4 7 5 64 35 54 LAND (KM) 403 427 443 453 456 335 250 171 89 -32 -47 -250 -558 -860 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.8 20.0 21.5 23.3 25.3 27.6 30.0 32.9 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.6 109.0 109.4 109.9 110.9 111.9 112.7 113.0 112.8 112.3 111.4 110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 14 14 14 15 17 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 15 15 14 13 5 1 0 1 21 5 5 5 5 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 36. 39. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -7. -18. -31. -42. -48. -51. -54. -60. -70. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -23. -28. -29. -31. -36. -44. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 108.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 10/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 10/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##