* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 10/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 26 28 30 30 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 28 30 30 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 21 19 24 26 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 11 15 15 23 27 36 43 53 51 46 34 37 39 36 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 1 0 0 -1 -5 -8 -12 2 6 4 -2 -5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 206 207 208 210 201 212 214 230 222 228 227 223 228 252 257 274 270 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.0 24.0 25.9 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 154 154 150 146 135 123 103 124 163 165 162 165 166 154 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 -55.6 -56.5 -57.0 -56.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 7 5 5 3 3 0 3 1 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 47 47 47 45 47 47 50 52 54 52 47 45 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 14 15 13 20 11 -7 -21 -36 -39 -14 -12 28 26 16 -6 200 MB DIV 24 21 11 20 18 29 39 24 73 72 62 23 37 33 33 -10 15 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 5 2 4 3 8 5 11 0 1 -1 8 9 30 60 LAND (KM) 375 396 404 410 426 400 290 236 112 66 -25 -31 -364 -660 -973 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.3 20.5 22.0 23.9 26.0 28.5 31.4 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.1 108.4 108.7 109.1 110.1 111.1 112.1 112.8 113.2 113.4 113.0 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 6 7 8 10 10 12 13 15 14 14 16 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 17 16 15 14 12 4 0 0 0 53 5 4 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 28. 31. 33. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -12. -23. -34. -41. -44. -47. -53. -64. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -5. -12. -17. -18. -21. -25. -36. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 107.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 10/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.0% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4.3% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 10/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##