* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 09/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 34 34 29 23 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 34 34 29 21 25 24 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 26 26 24 22 20 23 23 26 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 12 15 18 25 30 39 43 47 44 35 32 38 47 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -8 -5 -6 7 8 4 1 -12 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 212 218 214 219 211 221 228 230 224 229 228 231 246 268 272 291 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.0 25.6 24.2 28.4 29.9 29.8 29.7 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 157 157 153 150 142 134 119 105 150 166 164 163 166 161 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 -56.6 -57.2 -56.8 -55.8 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 1 2 1 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 51 50 49 48 46 47 47 50 50 49 45 45 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 18 16 10 18 16 9 -17 -27 -37 -26 -16 8 -3 12 -20 200 MB DIV 3 26 10 4 0 32 32 39 45 55 72 43 26 9 37 -11 -1 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 3 0 4 4 9 9 7 6 2 2 5 22 15 LAND (KM) 337 345 345 355 365 403 345 231 184 65 -15 52 -141 -460 -727 -982 -999 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.8 21.2 22.8 24.6 26.8 29.3 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.1 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.2 112.9 113.1 113.1 112.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 14 15 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 23 20 18 16 15 9 3 0 0 15 13 5 5 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. 36. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -8. -16. -26. -32. -36. -38. -44. -56. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 9. 9. 4. -2. -6. -8. -9. -14. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 106.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 09/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 7.2% 4.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4.4% 3.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 09/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##