* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 45 49 53 58 62 62 60 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 45 49 53 58 62 62 60 58 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 35 39 44 49 53 55 55 57 57 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 6 10 11 10 15 20 22 24 21 19 14 17 13 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -9 -6 -5 -7 -4 -3 -3 -7 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 326 357 61 104 123 80 90 58 66 54 52 60 70 74 89 66 59 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 133 135 139 139 139 140 142 142 141 141 140 138 134 131 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 65 68 67 66 63 60 59 60 63 66 66 65 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 17 20 20 20 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 3 16 26 37 41 44 52 45 52 55 69 100 91 62 52 200 MB DIV 0 8 28 55 34 -11 -21 8 72 99 114 102 121 90 85 66 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1839 1893 1956 2011 2081 2255 2414 2559 2579 2495 2441 2413 2386 2333 2272 2214 2159 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.6 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.6 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.7 126.3 126.8 127.3 128.8 130.2 131.5 132.6 133.4 133.8 133.8 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 5 5 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 6 8 6 7 9 11 12 12 10 11 8 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 28. 32. 32. 30. 28. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 125.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.4% 10.8% 9.2% 0.0% 10.1% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.3% 3.8% 3.1% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##